Impact-Based Forecasting (IBF)

The project involved expanding Impact-Based Forecasting (IBF) to five municipalities, analyzing forecasts, developing advisories, disseminating IBF bulletins, and strengthening local disaster preparedness and response systems.

Client
Dodhara Chandani, Bheemdatta, Parshuram, Bhimeshwor, Barbardiya Municipality and Department of Hydrology and Meteorology
Time Duration
2024-05-01 - 2024-12-31
Location
Dodhara Chandani, Bheemdatta, Parshuram, Bhimeshwor, Barbardiya Municipality
Detailed Description

Traditional forecasts predict the weather—Impact-Based Forecasting (IBF) goes further, forecasting the consequences. Since 2021, IBF has been piloted in Nepal, and in 2024, with support from IHRR, it expanded to five municipalities—Bhimeshwor, Bhimdatta, Dodhara Chandani, Parashuram, and Barbardiya.

Key Features & Impact

  • Color-coded warnings (Green, Yellow, Orange, Red) provide clear guidance on response actions.
  • Municipal-level IBF bulletins, launched in June 2024, support proactive disaster response.
  • Stakeholder workshops (May–June 2024) strengthened coordination between local governments, emergency responders, and communities.

A review highlighted successes in awareness and preparedness while identifying challenges in data availability, forecast accuracy, and last-mile communication. Moving forward, the project aims to expand IBF coverage, refine methodologies, and strengthen community engagement for more effective disaster risk reduction.